Maybe more than once?
When he started working with the Browns, Paul DePodesta instituted organisational guardrails, some basic tenets to guide the decision-making of the team. With a firmer steer on things, and his chosen people at GM and Head Coach, it’s obvious these will be more strictly adhered to. These are the first clue in assessing their likely actions.
Relating to the draft, the guardrails say “accumulate as many picks as possible” and “accumulate future picks because of high discount rate”. The obvious way to do this is to trade down. Sitting at #10 the Browns are in a pretty prime spot to do a deal if a player slides a little, such as Isaiah Simmons, or if a team gets twitchy about their chosen quarterback, likely Justin Herbert, getting picked in the teens. It also seems specifically important to acquire more picks this year as the roster is very top-heavy.
The Browns roster is like a meringue. It’s shiny and attractive on the outside, but when you cut into it, there’s a lot of air. They have some very good players, like Myles Garrett, but there ain’t much behind them. The Browns are in a position where they can take a player at pretty much any position and if they can play, they’re gonna get some burn. They especially need help at safety and linebacker, where you could argue they don’t have a starting-calibre player right now.
Their main target at #10 is surely finding somebody who can be their LT for the foreseeable. These tackles it seems however are “to your taste”, so it’s a very possible scenario that whichever tackle(s) the Browns like, they may be gone by #10. This draft is probably going to be a bit funky due to the lack of visits and workouts, and there could be an early run due to the combination of the quality of the top of this tackle class, and the idea of OTs as “safe” picks.
There is also the looming spectre of a trade for Trent Williams. If they pull that off, it’s basically written in stone they will trade back to recoup whatever compensation they gave to Washington.
It doesn’t seem likely they will pick another position at #10. Their “premium” positions are QB, CB, pass rusher, and OT. This is a very good wideout class, with a lot of exciting prospects, but it would be a strange choice to pick a WR in the first if they are as intent on keeping Odell Beckham as they say. The position is thin, but with the amount of 12 personnel that Stefanski is expected to run, it doesn’t seem like there will be enough snaps behind Beckham and Jarvis Landry to make it worth it.
Simmons does not seem likely either. He doesn’t play any of their premium positions, and it seems to me like he will end up playing a lot of box safety. Not a high value position. If he is playing linebacker, they just showed how much they value that position by letting Joe Schobert walk. A rookie, even a first rounder, is cheaper, but they currently lead the NFL in cap space, and he signed a pretty team-friendly deal in Jacksonville.
Cleveland and trade downs have a complicated history, and when I say complicated I mean in a “these people should just break up already” way. It’s important to remember though that the trade down has always been good to Cleveland. They have picked up a ton of extra draft capital through it. What comes next is where things have gotten messy. Hopefully with a new Front Office in charge with a seemingly aligned vision, the pay off will be worth it. Either way, get ready, because it’s happening.
